How Will The 2024 Elections Affect Ethereum Markets?

Hey There, Crypto Enthusiasts!

Ethereum (ETH) is at a thrilling crossroads, teetering on the edge of a critical support level at $2,419. Will it surge to new heights or plummet? Let’s explore the key factors that could shape its fate!

Key Support Level and Price Movements

• Crucial Support at $2,419: Ethereum’s price sits near the $2,419 support as per Coinpedia Markets, an area that aligns with:

  • The 50% price retracement level at $2,485.

  • An ascending trendline traced from early September lows.

  • Daily support level at $2,419.

• Downside Risk: If ETH breaks below this trendline and closes under $2,419, a downward move of approximately 11% could follow. This would likely bring ETH down to its September low of $2,150.

• However, if Ethereum maintains support above $2,419, it could rally toward its October 21 high of $2,769. This bullish scenario suggests a favorable ETH price prediction, as the coin could potentially reach higher levels in the near term.

Large Holder Activity and Market Sentiment

• Decline in Large Holder Activity: Recent data from late October indicates a notable decline in activity among large Ethereum holders. Lower outflows from these holders suggest decreased sell pressure from major players.

• Cautious Investor Sentiment: Although whale activity has dropped, there hasn’t been a strong surge in buying, indicating ongoing caution. This restraint reflects investor concerns over market volatility, contributing to Ethereum’s consolidation around the $2,419 support.

Macro Events and Broader Market Impact

• • Election Uncertainty Lowers Exchange Flows: With the U.S. elections approaching, exchange flows have hit 2024 lows as investors wait to see who wins the presidential race.

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    • Polymarket Betting Trends: Polymarket betting shows a tightening race between Trump and Harris. Trump’s odds have fallen to 53.8%, with Harris gaining ground. Bet volume has surged past $3 billion.

    • Trump’s Potential Influence on Crypto:

      • If Trump wins, his pro-market policies could drive investor confidence.

      • His administration might offer a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment, attracting capital and strengthening the U.S. dollar.

      • However, unexpected regulatory moves could add market volatility.

    • Harris and the Biden Administration’s Approach:

      • The current administration, under Gary Gensler, has led a strict regulatory stance, focusing on crypto firm crackdowns.

      • Harris has hinted at balancing regulation with tech growth, though her stance on crypto remains mostly cautious.

      • The industry has been active, contributing $119 million in campaign donations last month, hinting at high stakes for crypto regulation.

    • Bitcoin Rises Amid Uncertainty: Market uncertainties have pushed Bitcoin to record levels, with investors bracing for election-driven volatility.

No matter who wins, the election could bring notable price swings to the crypto market as investors react to policy shifts and regulatory expectations.

• Ethereum’s future trajectory depends on its ability to hold above the $2,419 support level. If it maintains this level, ETH could retest the October high of $2,769. However, a break below could trigger further declines. In the coming days, watching Ethereum’s price action and broader macroeconomic signals will be crucial for investors.